A lot of people (2) have been asking me who I think Obama will choose as his vice presidential nominee. I have what I consider to be a bold, smart, and somewhat out-of-the-box prediction, so I realized that I urgently need to get my prediction on record in case some pundit makes the same prediction before I do.
So I'll get to my prediction in a second; but first, I'd like to take a moment to go down the list of possible VEEP choices for Obama, and give a brief explanation why I don't think it is gonna happen.
Hillary Clinton: Obama needs to resist this temptation (and I think he will). Can anyone really imagine a productive White House with these two working together--and with Bill Clinton as the Vice President's spouse? But more importantly, Obama's entire case rests on being the guy who is turning the page on the politics-of-old, and he has made the Clintons symbolic of the politics-of-old in the Democratic party. Undermine that argument, and he has nothing.
Mark Warner: Warner has star-power, that's for sure--and he may be able to deliver Virginia for Obama. But he is right where he wants to be--winning a Virginia Senate race by a mile. If he drops out of that race and the Dems find a new candidate, winning this seat--which is currently a near certainty for Democrats--becomes much more difficult, and probably leans to the Republican (ex-Governor and brief Presidential candidate Jim Gilmore).
Tim Kaine: The popular Virginia Gov might be a good choice--but I think if Obama is going to put a male candidate on the ticket (in the aftermath of nursing his wounds from Hillary-supporters), it better be someone with an amazing amount of charisma. Kaine's national appearances have been iffy, and he's a bit too untested for the national scene at this point.
Jim Webb: See: Tim Kaine. Another popular Virginian, another Obama supporter--but at the end of the day, another boring white guy who comes across as flat on tv.
Kathleen Sebelius: Many are suggesting that the popular Governor of Kansas, an Obama supporter, would help shore up support with women. Maybe, but I think Sebelius is a bit dull and doesn't have the force of personality that other candidates might. Plus, I don't think she would be able to deliver Kansas to Obama, just in the way that John Edwards' presence on the ticket in 2004 didn't make a dent in North Carolina.
Ted Strickland: Strickland probably could deliver Ohio to Obama--he won the gubernatorial in 2006 in a landslide. But he put his chips on Clinton early and stumped for her during that pivotal primary which she won, so you have to wonder if Obama is eager to work with Strickland. I do think if this ticket happens, though, it will be a tough ticket to beat; Strickland is my runner-up VEEP prediction.
Joe Biden or Wes Clark: This is a catch-all category for the "enhance Obama's national security credentials" pick. Lord knows I love Joe Biden, and Lord knows to a lesser degree that I kind of like Wes Clark, but these guys add nothing to in the way of geographic balance to the ticket (ie I don't think they put any new states in play). Additionally, they don't look new and exciting the way the Obama ticket would need to look, though you could make the argument that he needs the VEEP to *not* be a star, just a resume-enhancer.
Ed Rendell: The Gov help deliver Pennsylvania, but a) if Obama loses Pennsylvania, he's in real trouble anyway, so choosing a VEEP based on keeping a state rather than winning a new state puts Obama in a defensive pose right off the bat, b) he's a pretty difficult personality, and c) he was a Clintonite.
Janet Napolitano: Governor of Arizona, she adds some gender diversity to the ticket and some regional balance, as well as some real ideas on how to communicate with southwestern voters. The only potential problems, though, are a) she's not great on TV, b) she is an older unmarried woman, which may lead to more innuendo, and c) Arizona will still vote for their favorite son, John McCain, no matter how hard Napolitano campaigns for Obama.
Chuck Hagel: Just in the way John Kerry thought about putting Republican John McCain on the ticket, some are suggesting that Obama cross over to the dark side and put the relatively-non-insane Chuck Hagel (R-NE) on the ticket. After all, he is becoming anti-war, has bucked his party many times, and could provide an interesting contrast to one-time buddy McCain, whom Hagel has neglected to endorse at this point. And it helps the argument of "We're not here to bicker, we're here to get things done, regardless of party." Still, I think the likelihood of Hagel accepting is unlikely--plus, he is quite conservative on many issues, and the netroots, who could be huge fundraisers for Obama, really hate bipartisanship. Frankly I think Hagel wants to be Secretary of Defense in Obama's administration--but I may have no idea what I'm talking about. But I'd support that 100%!
Am I missing any easy ones? I think this is the generally-accepted short list.
OK, I think I've toyed with everyone long enough. My official prediction, who I've seen mentioned only on the very long short lists, would be . . . Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri.
It just seems right to me. I think as a woman she could be a great message-deliverer to women about
Obama, but like Hillary (and unlike Napolitano and Sebelius), she is fiery, charismatic, and a real fighter. In other words, she is the kind of woman that Hillary supporters could really get behind. She won a tough election in Missouri that the RNC spent tons of money on, so we know she's been heavily vetted and there are no skeletons in her closet. She might help win Missouri for Obama--or at least, I think that of her, Sebelius, and Napolitano, she is the woman most likely to help deliver her state. Her relative youth and her energetic approach help advance the storyline that this ticket would usher in a new generation of American politics. She was an early advocate for Obama, endorsing him right after his surprising loss in New Hampshire, which was a gamble that could have hurt tremendously but really paid off--so Obama may want to re-pay the favor (the Politico has a great article about that here). Plus, I really, really like her.
As with each potential candidate, she has weaknesses, too. If Republicans want to pit McCain's experience against Obama's inexperience, than Claire doesn't help Obama there--though I think "experience," even in a positive sense, is almost a dirty word these days among the discouraged electorate. And she does nothing to burnish his national security credentials. Still, I think the positives outweight the negatives and make this a very compelling ticket.
So that's my prediction. Obama/McCaskill '08!